Research2 sources
Extrapolation challenges in global biodiversity modelling
Nature · By Aafke M. Schipper ·
The Brief · written from 2 sources
- Two articles published online on 10 November 2026 in Nature Ecology & Evolution evaluate global biodiversity models.
- The sources report that correlative global biodiversity models have low extrapolation performance, so their local-scale predictions are less reliable.
- An evaluation of global pressure-response models finds that ecologically structured models have higher interpolation accuracy than study-centric ones.
Why it matters
Local biodiversity predictions from global correlative models may be less accurate than they appear, so their results call for cautious interpretation and additional data.
Who’s affected
- ecologists and biodiversity modellers
- conservation planners who rely on global biodiversity projections
What to do
- Interpret global correlative biodiversity model projections cautiously at local scales
- Collect additional data to support local-scale biodiversity predictions
- Use multimodel projections rather than a single global model
- #biodiversity
- #ecological modelling
- #extrapolation
- #global models
- #local scale
Nature Ecology & Evolution, Published online: 10 November 2026; doi:10.1038/s41559-026-03210-2 Low extrapolation performance in correlative global biodiversity models highlights the need for cautious interpretation, additional data collection and multimodel projections.
Timeline
Two articles on global biodiversity model evaluation published online in Nature Ecology & Evolution
nature.com
Extrapolation challenges in global biodiversity modelling
nature.com
Global biodiversity models exhibit low predictive accuracy on local scales