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Analysis: Fossil-fuel CO2 emissions set to dip in 2026 as Iran conflict hits oil use

Carbon Brief · By Carbon Brief Staff · 1h ago

The Brief · written from 4 sources

The Global Carbon Project projects global fossil-fuel CO2 emissions to fall 0.4% in 2026, the first drop since 2020.
Carbon Brief reports that oil emissions fall while coal emissions rise slightly, and that fossil emissions fall in most major economies.
Total emissions are expected to edge up because land-use emissions rise, and researchers caution the decline could be short-lived.

Why it matters

The projected fall is a single-year dip in fossil emissions, and the sources disagree on its cause: Earth News credits solar and wind growth alongside the Iran conflict, while Science News says high gas prices from the war probably drove it and that green energy is not the main reason.

Who’s affected

climate scientists
energy and climate policy analysts

Global Carbon Project 2026 report (21st annual edition)
#fossil-emissions
#carbon-budget
#global-carbon-project
#iran-conflict
#oil-demand
#climate-policy

Print article Share Article Contents Expand menu Close Total emissions edge up as land-use emissions rise Land-use emissions rise in 2026 Fossil emissions fall in most major economies Oil emissions fall as coal emissions slightly increase Land sink in 2025 is highest on record…

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