# Arctic winter sea ice is being overestimated by climate models

Source: [Earth.com](https://www.earth.com/climate/arctic-winter-sea-ice-is-being-overestimated-by-climate-models/) · 2026-11-07 · Earth & Climate
Page: https://themorning.science/story/arctic-winter-sea-ice-is-being-overestimated-by-climate-models-19eb4245b0e68973
Kind: research · Impact: low

## In brief

- Climate models disagree most about Arctic winter sea ice, according to the source.
- Together, the models simulate nearly a million square kilometers too much March sea ice, about 386,000 square miles.
- The source describes the overestimate as close in size to Texas.

## Why it matters

Arctic sea ice loss is usually reported as a summer story, but this suggests winter ice, which is what the models get most wrong, deserves more scrutiny in climate projections.

## Coverage

- [Arctic winter sea ice is being overestimated by climate models](https://www.earth.com/climate/arctic-winter-sea-ice-is-being-overestimated-by-climate-models/) — Earth.com, 2026-11-07

Tags: arctic, sea ice, climate models, climate science, winter ice

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Brief generated by AI (claude-haiku-5-5) from the reporting listed under Coverage. Headlines belong to their publishers. The Morning Science – https://themorning.science