# Analysis: Fossil-fuel CO2 emissions set to dip in 2026 as Iran conflict hits oil use

Source: [Carbon Brief](https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-fossil-fuel-co2-emissions-set-to-dip-in-2026-as-iran-conflict-hits-oil-use) · 2026-11-10 · Earth & Climate
Page: https://themorning.science/story/analysis-fossil-fuel-co2-emissions-set-to-dip-in-2026-as-iran-conflict-hits-oil-e01a30f2facbc93e
Kind: research · Impact: medium

## In brief

- The Global Carbon Project projects fossil-fuel CO2 emissions to fall about 0.4% in 2026, the first such drop since 2020.
- Drivers cited include expanding solar and wind capacity and higher fuel prices from the Iran conflict, which reduced oil use.
- Researchers caution the decline could be short-lived, and the dip is probably driven largely by high gas prices rather than clean energy growth.

## Why it matters

The projected dip is a headline figure for the 2026 Global Carbon Budget, but sources disagree on its cause, so readers should not read it as proof that the energy transition is accelerating; a rebound is possible if prices recover.

## Versions

- 2026 Global Carbon Budget

## Timeline

- 2026-11-10: Global Carbon Project publishes 2026 Global Carbon Budget (21st annual report) projecting a 0.4% fall in fossil CO2 emissions
- 2026-11-10: Nature Climate Change publishes study projecting a 2026 decline in global emissions

## Coverage

- [Iran war helps fuel global drop in fossil fuel emissions — but there’s a catch](https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/climate-change/worlds-fossil-fuel-emissions-will-fall-this-year-scientists-say-partly-because-of-the-iran-war) — Latest from Live Science in Planet-earth, 2026-11-10
- [Iran War Unexpectedly Drove Down Carbon Emissions This Year](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/11/09/climate/global-emissions-iran-war.html) — NYT > Climate and Environment, 2026-11-10
- [Analysis: Fossil-fuel CO2 emissions set to dip in 2026 as Iran conflict hits oil use](https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-fossil-fuel-co2-emissions-set-to-dip-in-2026-as-iran-conflict-hits-oil-use) — Carbon Brief, 2026-11-10
- [Fossil CO₂ emissions projected to decrease in 2026 amid clean energy growth and Iran conflict](https://phys.org/news/2026-11-fossil-emissions-decrease-energy-growth.html) — Earth News - Earth Science News, Earth Science, Climate Change, 2026-11-10
- [Fossil fuel emissions are down in 2026. Green energy isn’t the reason](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/fossil-fuel-emissions-down-2026-gas) — Science News, 2026-11-10
- [A further acceleration of clean energy is needed for global CO 2 emissions to peak and decline](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-026-02821-8) — nature.com, 2026-11-10

Tags: fossil fuels, carbon emissions, global carbon budget, iran conflict, clean energy, oil markets

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Brief generated by AI (claude-haiku-5-5) from the reporting listed under Coverage. Headlines belong to their publishers. The Morning Science – https://themorning.science